Скотт Плаус - Психология оценки и принятия решений

• Название: Психология оценки и принятия решений
• Автор: Скотт Плаус
• Издательство: ИИД “Филинъ”
• Жанр: Психология
• Год: 1998
• ISBN: 5-89568-083-6

Книга посвящена психологии принятия решений - теме, находящейся на стыке когни-тивной и социальной психологии и практически не освещенной в современной литературе. Автор в доступной форме анализирует особенности восприятия, памяти, модели принятия решений, социальную сторону оценки, выбора и принятия решений, типичные ситуации. Книга насыщена примерами из реальной жизни, тестами и уникальными упражнениями. Она поможет читателю понять механизм формирования оценки и принятия решений, а значит, избежать многих ошибок, просчетов и ловушек, подстерегающих его на этом пути.

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6.1: From Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice", Science,vol. 211, p. 453ff. Copyright 1981 by AAAS. Used by permission of the AAAS and Prof. Tversky.

9.1, 9.2: From Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk", Econometrica,vol. 47, p. 263ff. Copyright © 1979. Used by permission of The Econometric Society.

12.1: From David Rosenhan and Samuel Messick, "Affect and Expectation", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,vol. 3. Copyright 1966 by the American Psychological Association. Reprinted by permission.

12.2: Adapted from E. Borgida and R. Nisbett, "The Differential Impact of Abstract vs. Concrete Information on Decisions", Journal of Applied Social Psychology,vol. 7. Copyright © 1977. Used by permission of V. H. Winston Sons, Inc. 14.1: Associated Press. 15.1: Courtesy Smith-Corona.

16.1, 16.2: From Harold Kelley. "The Processes of Causal Attribution", American Psychologist,vol. 28. Copyright 1973 by the American Psychological Association. Reprinted by permission.

16.3: From Shelley Taylor and Susan Fiske, "Point of View and Perception of Causality", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,vol. 32. Copyright 1975 by the American Psychological Association. Reprinted by permission. 16.4: From Michael Storms, "Videotape and the Attribution Process", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,vol. 27. Copyright 1973 by the American Psychological Association. Reprinted by permission.

17.2: From B. Latane, K. Williams, and S. Harking, "Many Hands Made Light the Work: The Causes and Consequences of Social Loafing", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,vol. 37. Copyright 1979 by the American Psychological Association. Reprinted by permission.

17.3: From Harvey Hornstein, Elisha Fisch, and Michael Holmes, "Influence of a Model's Feelings about His Behavior and His Relevance as a Comparisin Other on Observers", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,vol. 10. Copyright 1968 by the American Psychological Association. Reprinted by permission. 18.1: Excerpt from Risk Taking: A Study in Cognition and Personalityby Michael A.Wallach and Nathan Kogan, copyright © 1964 by Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., and renewed 1992 by Michael A.Wallach and Nathan Kogan, reprinted by permission of the publisher.

354

19.1: From S. Oskamp, "Overconfidence in Case Study Judgments", Journal of Consulting Psychology,vol. 29. Copyright 1965 by the American Psychological Association. Reprinted by permission.

19.3: From Decision Trapsby J. Edward Russo and Paul J. Schoemaker. Copyright © 1989 by J. Edward Russo and Paul J. Schoemaker. Used by permission of Doubleday, a division of Bantam Doubleday Dell Publishing Group, Inc. Reprinted in the British Commonwealth, except Canada, by permission of Judy Piatkus (Publishers) Ltd. 19.4: Calvin and Hobbescopyright 1990 Watterson. Dist. by Universal Press Syndicate. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.

21.2: From Barry Staw, "Knee-deep in Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a ChOsen Course of Action", Organizational Behavior and Human Performance.Copyright © 1976 by Academic Press. Used by permission of publisher and author. A—2: Drawing by Jonik, 1981. The New Yorker Magazine, Inc.

ТАБЛИЦЫ

3.1, 3.2: From E. Loftus and J. Palmer, "Reconstruction of Automobile Destruction: An Example of the Interaction Between Language and Memory", Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior,vol. 13. Copyright © 1974 by Academic Press. Used by permission of publisher and author.

5.1: From Lohn Hershey and Paul Schoemaker, "Risk Taking and Problem Context Expected Utility Analysis", Journal of Risk and Insurance,vol. 47. Copyright American Risk and Insurance Association. Used with permission. All rights reserved. 6.1: From Howard Schuman, "Problems in the Use of Survey Questions ro Measure Public Opinion", Science,vol. 235, p. 957ff. Copyright 1987 by the AAAS. Used by permission of AAAS and the author.

6.2: Top 2 pairs of questions from Elizabeth Loftus, "Leading Questions and the Eyewitness Report", Cognitive Psychology,vol. 7. Copyright © 1975 by Academic Press. Used by permission of the publisher and author.

11.1: Adapted from Eugene Borgida and Richard Nisbett, "The Differential Impact of Abstract vs. Concrete Information on Decisions", Journal of Applied Social Psychology,vol. 7. Copyright © 1977. Used by permission of V. H. Winston Son, Inc. 12.1: Adapted from S. Selvin, "A Problem in Pribability", American Statistican,Feb. 1975. Copyright © 1975. Used by permission of American Statistical Association. 13.1: Adapted from Gregory Northcraft and Margaret Neale, "Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,vol. 39. Copyright © 1987 by Academic Press. Used by permission of the publisher and Prof. Northcraft.

ТЕКСТ

Pp. 69ff: From Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice", Science,vol. 211, p. 453ff. Copyright 1981 by AAAS.

Used by permission of the AAAS and Prof. Tversky.

P. 131: From Marilyn vos Savant, Ask Marilyn.Copyright © 1992 by Marilyn vos Savant. Reprinted with permission from St. Martin's Press, Inc., New York, NY.

Reprinted with permission from Parade, copyright © 1990.

Pp. 245—246: B. F. Skinner, Notebooks(Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall), p. 150f.

Copyright © 1980. Used by permission of the B. F. Skinner Foundation.

Авторский указатель

Abelson, R. P., 142 Abrams, D., 33 Abramson, L. Y., 233 Ajzen, I., 87, 149, 316 Allais, P. M., 113, 130 Allison, S. Т., 254-255 Alloy, L. В., 204 Allport, G. W., 237 Alvarez, L. W., 195 Amabile, Т. М., 207, 216 Amir, Т., 318 Anderson, C, 223 Anderson, С A, 158, 315 Anderson, K., 233 Anderson, N. H., 63 Anderson, U., 184 Andrews, D. S., 37 Andrus, D. E., 184 Appleman, A., 307—308 Argote, L., 256 Arkes, H. R., 54, 204,

282, 299, 321 Aronson, E., 46, 47, 322 Asch, S. E., 62, 67,

248-250, 253 Ausubel, N., 39

Bailey, S., 233 Bakan, P., 199 Bandura, A., 213 Barclay, S., 174 Bar-Hillel, M., 149,

172-173, 189 Bar-Tal, D., 229 Batson, С D., 84-86,

225, 229

Baxter, T. L., 232 Bazerman, M. H.,

307-308, 321 Beach, L. R., 17, 174 Beck, D. E., 317 Bedau, H. A., 274-27f Bell, D. E., 132, 321 Bern, D. J., 42-43 Ben Zur, H., 316

Bennett, S. E., 78 Bernoulli, D., 107-108 Berscheid, E., 67,

290-291 Beyth, R. (see Beyth-

Marom, R.) Beyth-Marom, R.,

54-55, 204, 287 Bierbrauer, G., 220 Birnbaum, D., 316 Bishop, G. F., 78, 258 Blascovich, J., 169 Block, J. R., 33, 59 Blodgett, R., 194 Blommel, J. M., 239 Blumer, C, 282, 299 Boettger, R., 315 Bond, С F., Jr., 239 Borgida, E., 142,

161-162, 220-222 Borrelli, S., 89 Bostian, D. W., 153 Bostic, R., 123 Bourne, L. E., Jr., 204 Bower, G. H., 162, 163,

316

Bradburn, N. M., 322 Bransford, J. D., 52 Brehmer, В., 315 Breznitz, S. L., 316 Brickman, P., 68-69 Brocato, R. M., 239 Brockner, J., 306-309,

319

Brophy, J. E., 290 Brown, B. G., 272, 317 Brown, E., 281 Brown, J. D., 310 Bruner, J. S., 31-33 Budiansky, S., 94—95 Bushyhead, J, В., 276, 281

Campbell, В. Н., 294 Campbell, D. Т., 63-65 Campbell, J. D., 54

Campbell, N. A., 45 Cantor, N., 287 Cantril, H., 35-37, 94 Caputo, C, 226 Carden, G., 194 Carlsmith, J. M., 40-43 Carpenter, К. В., 158 Carroll, J. S, 157-158, 229 Centor, R. M, 281 Cervone, D., 184 Chaiken, S., 137-138 Chandler, T. A., 318 Chapman, J. P., 205-206 Chapman, L. J., 205-206 Cheng, P. W., 219 Chesnick, E. I., 171 Chiles, C, 251 Christensen, C, 282 Christensen, D., 293 Christensen- Szalanski,

С. М, 317

Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., 17, 54, 276, 281, 317 Cialdini, R. В., 158-159,

322

Clark, G. M., 229 Clark, R. D., III., 251 Clifford, B. R., 281 Close, M., 223 Clymer, A., 93 Coates, D., 68—69 Cohen, B. L., 175 Cohen, J., 171 Combs, В., 156 Converse, P. E., 90 Coombs, С. Н., 112 Cooper, J., 291-293 Cooper, W. H., 66 Coren, S., 61-62 Corey, S. M., 84 Costanza, R., 305 Cox, J. R., 316 Craig, K. D., 247-248 CrandaU, R., 162,220-221 Crandall, V. J., 169

356

Crocker, J., 204, 208, 317 Cross, J. G., 296, 297,

299-300, 308 Cunningham, J. D.,

218-219

Dabbs, J. M., Jr., 242 Dalton, H. P., 281 Darley, J. M., 84-86,

220-221, 225, 243-

244, 253, 293 Daubman, K. A., 316 Davis, J. H., 263 Davis, К. Е., 217 Dawes, R. M., 152, 167,

286, 302, 321 Deci, E. L., 39 Deffenbacher, K. A., 281 Derby, S. L., 175 Deutsch, В., 92 Dion, K., 67 Doherty, M. E., 294 Doob, A. N., 45-47 Doria, J. R., 255 Dub6-Rioux, L., 317 Duffendack, S. C, 153 Duncan, B. L., 232 Dunning, D., 132, 272,

283

Duval, S., 224 Dyer, L., 256

Ebbesen, E. В., 317 Eddy, D., 167-168 Edeal, G. H., 195 Edwards, W., 174 Einhorn, H. J., 133, 212 Ellsberg, D., 116 Esser, J. K., 252

Fama, E. F., 201 Faust, D., 152 Fazio, R. H., 232, 293 Feldman, J. M., 66 Feldman, N. S., 221 Feldman, R. S., 290 Festinger, L., 39—43, 47,

244-245, 247 Feynman, R. P., 269 Fiedler, K., 317 Filkins, J., 256 Fink, С F., 261

Finkel, S. E., 183 Fisch, E., 245-246 Fischhoff, В., 54-56, 73-74, 131-132, 172, 176, 178, 201, 270-275, 277, 282-283, 287, 295, 300, 319

Fishbein, M, 87 Fishburn, P. C, 112 Fiske, S. Т., 222-223 Fletcher, G. J. O., 317 Fode, K. L., 319 Forsterling, F., 219 Franks, J. J., 52 Frenkel, O., 47 Frieze, I. H., 229

Galper, R. E., 234, 314 Gansberg, M., 241 Garcia, R., 299 Gargano, G. N., 315 Geva, N., 316 Gill, S., 78 Gilovich, Т., 146-147,

169, 321

Ginsburg, G. P., 169 Giuliano, Т., 307—308 Glass, D. C, 238 Gliksman, A., 186 Gmelch, G., 152 Goethals, G. R., 232 Goldberg, L. R., 232, 281 Golding, S. L., 206 Gorkin, L., 44-45 Graham, T. W., 185 Graves, J., 239 Greenberg, J., 186 Gregory, W. L., 158 Grether, D. M., 122 Griffin, D. W., 103, 122,

272, 283

Grigg, С. М., 82-83 Griggs, R. A., 316 Gross, E. J., 65 Gross, P. H., 142 Guy, D. E., 204 Guyer, M. J., 296, 299,

300, 308

Ha, Y., 287

Haberman, C, 242 Hagafors, R., 315

Hake, H. W., 196-198 Hamilton, D. L., 207 Hammond, K. R., 321 Haran, D., 171 Hardin, G., 303 Harkins, S., 239, 240 Harkness, A. R., 54, 204 Harris, R. J., 90, 93 Harris, V. A., 225, 254 Hartley, E., 77 Harvey, J. H., 221, 226 Hastie, R., 54, 261, 262 Hastorf, A. H., 35-37 Hawkins, S. A., 54 Heider, F., 217, 222, 224 Henchy, Т., 238 Henry, R. A., 262, 280 Henslin, J. M., 214 Herrnstein, R. J., 123 Hershey, J. C, 69, 74 Hewstone, M. R. C, 219 Hill, G. W., 262 Hilton, D. J., 219 Hilts, P. J., 175 Hintzman, D. L., 181 Hippler, H., 92, 95 Hirt, E. R., 160 Hoch, S. J., 65, 160, 283 Hofstadter, D. R., 304 Hogarth, R. M., 133,

134, 174, 212, 321,

322

Hoge, R. D., 169 Holmes, M., 245-247 Hooke, R., 196 Homstein, H. A.,

245-247

Hover, G. L., 153 Hovland, C, L., 61 Howe, R. C, 169 Hu, L., 255 Hubbard, M, 319 Hunter, I. M. L., 56 Hyman, R., 196-198

Ingham, A. G., 239 Inkster, J. A., 46-47 Irwin, F. W., 169 Isen, A. M., 316

Jacobson, L., 289—290 Jaggi, V., 317

357

Janis, I. L., 251-253,

261, 269 Janoff-Bulman, R.,

68-69

Jaspars, J. M. F., 219 Jenkins, H. M., 181, 202 Jenkins, J. J., 319 Jennings, D. L., 207, 216 Johnson, C, 207 Johnson, E. J., 122 Johnson, J., 160 Johnson-Laird, P. N., 285 Jones, E. E., 217, 225, 254 Jones, R. Т., 34, 255 Jussim, L., 290

Kahneman, D., 17, 96-98, 100-102, 113, 122-123, 126-131, 141-146, 148-151, 155-157, 183-184, 188, 321

Kammer, D., 232 Kantola, S. J., 45 Kaplan, M. F., 258 Kaplan, R. M., 99 Karmarkar, U., 112 Kassin, S. M., 221 Keeney, R. L., 175 Kellaway, R-, 169 Kelley, H. H., 67, 213,

217-220, 231 Keren, G., 272, 317 Kida, Т., 317 Ют, J. I., 315 Klayman, J., 287 Kleinmuntz, D. N., 313 Knetsch, J. L., 127 Knox, R. E., 46-47 Koepsell, T. D., 317 Kogan, N., 207, 257 Koivumaki, J. H., 231-232 Konecni, V. J., 317 Koriat, A., 295 Kramer, B.M., 185 Kriss, N., 234 Kristiansen, С. М., 165

Lage, E., 251 Lai, C, 282 Lamal, P. A., 49 Lamm, H., 259 Landy, D., 67

Lang, E., 308 Langer, E. J., 213-215 LaPiere, R. Т., 83-84 Lasky, J. J., 153 Latane, В., 220, 239-240,

242-244, 249, 253 Lawrence, C. P., 183 Leary, M. R., 54 Leddo, J., 142 Lee, I., 175 Lefcourt, H.M., 213 Legant, P., 226 Leippe, M.M., 281,322 Lelyveld, J., 89 Lepper, M. R., 37-38,

160, 283, 295, 315, 319 Levi, A. S., 160 Levinger, G., 239 Lichtenstein, S., 37—38, 73-74, 120-122, 131-132, 175-176, 178, 270-273, 277, 282, 295 Lin, S., 272 Lindoerfer, J. S., 252 Linkous, R. A., 239 Lockerbie, В., 89 Loftus, E. F., 49-52, 93,

281

Loomes, G., 132-133 Lopes, L. L., 109, 199,

310-311 Lord, C. G., 283, 295,

319

Loy, J. W., 37 Luce, R. D., 112, 123 Luck, R. F., 299

Maass, A., 251 McArthur, L. A.

(see McArthur L. Z.) McArthur, L. Z., 207,

220, 224

McKenna, K., 54 Mackie, D. M., 255 McMillen, D., 34 McNeil, B. J., 99 Maier, N. R. F., 260-261 Malkiel, B. G., 201 Malone, В., 194 , Marecek, J., 226 Marks, R. W., 169 Marz, В., 229

Matsuda, N., 318 Mazur, A., 178 Meehl, P. E., 152 Merton, R. K., 289 Messick, D. M., 254 Messick, S., 169-170 Metalsky, G. I., 233 Metzger, J., 169 Meyerowitz, В. Е., 137—

138

Michaels, J. W., 238-239 Michela, J. L., 219 Milgram, S., 220, 224 Miller, A. G., 224 Miller, D. Т., 230, 293 Miller, J., 61-62 Miller, J. G., 318 Miller, N., 63-65 Miller, R. L., 244 Miller, R. S., 230 Mills, J., 46 Milojkovic, J. D., 272 Mims, M., 204 Mitchell, R. C, 177 Moede, W., 239 Morgenstern, O., 109—

112, 123

Morier, D. M., 142 Morley, I. E., 54 Moscovici, S,250-251,256 Mullen, В., 207, 230, 255 Murphy, A. H., 272,

276, 317 Myers, D. G., 49-50,

258-259 Mynatt, С R., 293-294

Naffrechoux, M., 251 Nahinsky, I. D., 204 Nathanson, S., 306, 313 Neale, M. A., 186-187 Nemeth, C, 251, 261 Neuringer, A., 200 Nida, S., 244 Niemi, R. G., 89 Nisbett, R. E., 18, 151, 160-163, 203-204, 209, 220-222, 225-227, 229, 321 Nord, С L., 153 Northcraft, G. В., 186—187 Novick, L. R., 219 Nowicki, G. P., 316

358